Some Analytics

Good night.

I decided to put some of my conference paper's results in the weblog. therefore you can see them underneath. First of all, I had separated the time history of water level in lake every 107 years. you can see the results in Fig.1.

Fig.1. Trend Analysis.

you can see the changes in trends here every 107 years. It is obvius that the great changes was occurred in late 90's. Then I decided to fit the best polynomial curve for it. So here is the results (Fig.2).

Fig.2. Polynomial Curve Fitting Results.

Then, I simulated the water level in lake by ANN and MLR techniques (time-lag) and you can see the the results of GRN, MLR and RBF in Fig 3~5.

Fig.3. GRN results

Fig.4. RBF results

Fig.5. MLR results

As you can see here the best fitted model is MLR, so I think the reaction is totally linear (I didn't put the results of FFBP but I tested it, the best result was still in MLR).

Sincerely yours.

Babak Vaheddoost.