Journal papers issued by now related to the thesis

1- Water Resources Management

Prediction of Water Level using Monthly Lagged Data in Lake Urmia, Iran (Link)

2- Theoretical and Applied Climatology

Structural characteristics of annual precipitation in Lake Urmia basin (Link)

3- European Water

Spatial analysis of large atmospheric oscillations and annual precipitation in lake Urmia basin (Link&PDF)

Paper: Prediction of Water Level using Monthly Lagged Data in Lake Urmia, Iran

Hi everyone,

I am very pleased to share my recently published SPINGER like here.

Prediction of Water Level using Monthly Lagged Data in Lake Urmia, Iran

You can also read the abstract of the paper in the Related page of this weblog.

Thankfully

Article: Structural characteristics of annual precipitation in Lake Urmia basin

Hi

At last I got my paper published on the web. It is about patterns of annual precipitation in the basin. You can download it from Springer link.

Structural characteristics of annual precipitation in Lake Urmia basin

The proper citation would be.

Vaheddoost B, Aksoy H (2016) Structural characteristics of annual precipitation in Lake Urmia basin. Theoretical and Applied Climatology (): 1-14, DOI 10.1007/s00704-016-1748-3

Thankfully 

Babak

New Paper

Hi everyone

My paper about "Structural characteristics of annual precipitation in Lake Urmia Basin" is accepted in Theoretical and Applied Climatology. I will soon put a link about it and you can download and find out about it. There are a lot of discussion about probabilistic and probability distribution function properties of annual rainfall in it.

I added a iso-entropy map as an innovative part that can be handy to recognize the degree of uncertainty in annual precipitation. It seems that the westerly breezing air fronts have the most influence on the properties of the annual rainfall in the basin. It still affect the regions individually and precipitation is strictly dependent on the terrain.

It is concluded that, annual rainfall in all its distributional properties changes radical from West to the East side of the basin as passing through the Lake Urmia but less in passing from North to South.

Thank you

Interaction of Coastal aquifer and Lake Urmia

Hey guys.

As I discussed previously, I am a true believer of  existence of interaction between coastal aquifer and Lake Urmia water level. Many authorities and politicians refuse to accept the theory and there are some research articles based on rejection of existence of such an interaction.

Recently I used to publish a conference paper (ASCE, EWRI 2015) about the interaction of water level in some random coastal aquifers in West coast of the Lake Urmia basin and water level in the Lake itself. I used a soft computational method named "Decision Tree" to manipulate my model. It is based on Entropy and probability. Evidence and results of this model are in agreement with a theory of existence of such interaction in Coastal aquifer.

Fig. 1 shows the schematic relation between lake and coastal aquifer which I believe that exist in the hydrological process. In general in closed basin lakes, such interaction is one of the main hydrological variables that should be considered and studied carefully.

Fig. 1. Schematic of interaction of coastal aquifer and Lake Urmia in balance

So I used to select some random wells just near to the west coast of the lake. You can find the position of this wells in Fig. 2. Data in east coast is not ready for use for now and I will try to manipulate them a.s.a.p. Followingly, a Pearson correlation coefficient test between Lake water level and water level in wells is done and interesting results are shown in Fig. 3 with a radar chart including the direction of such relations.

Fig. 3. Correlaogram radar chart

Fig. 2. Position of wells in west coast of the Lake

It is obvious that, there is strong linear relationship specially in North and South of the basin all with negative values. Same analysis on probability distribution function of lake water and water level in wells showed strong similarities in shape and moments of distribution. I have done some investigations on the structure of cross-correlations in time and space between lake and coastal aquifer. Two samples of such investigation are shown in Fig. 4. You can see seasonality and strong interaction between lake and coastal aquifer. As shown in Fig. 3 and 4,  these two stations (Station 1 and 6) have the most impact on the interaction.

Fig. 4. Cross-correlation between lake water level and water level in wells of station 1 and 6

I though a model may reveal more detailed structure of the relation, so I used to select a probabilistic one. As entropy concept is very popular now a days I used DT for manipulation of data and calibrated my tree. Here is the scatter plot of my model in Fig. 5. As you can see these are strong estimation result and I personally satisfied with the results.

Fig. 5. Scatter lot of DT model

That is all I was eager to share for now!

So I think I proved my theory at least to some extent. You may find out my paper's abstract in Related page in my weblog and/or download the whole article from ASCE library.

Please share your points of view with me.

Thank you

Parametric vs. Nonprametric estimation in favor of Chaos!!!

Hi everyone.

As I promised I am uploading the results of EWRA 2015 conference (i.e. Scatter plot of models) which I used to model the water elevation in Lake Urmia that have GEV distribution as I mentioned before. The full paper of the conference will be soon uploaded in Research gate and inrested people can refer to it. In  this paper I used 11 month lagged data due to high persistence of the procedure (i.e. almost infinite). Then I used to model the water elevation by 9 different method categorized generally in parametric and non-parametric approaches. For the case of parametric approach I used multi linear regression (MLR), nonlinear regression (NLR) and decision tree (DT) while, ANN models namely radial basis function (RBF), feed forward back propagation (FFBP) and generalized regression neural network (GRN) with Gaussian transfer function were used in favor of non-parametric approach. Figure 1, shows the early results of the models indicating that parametric approaches are more favorable but FFBP still is a good competitor to the parametric results.

Fig 1. Scatter plot of all parametric and non-parametric models

The most fitted model was NLR with multiplicative nature  and this means that the procedure is extremely nonlinear. This results are in favor of some related research like Khatami Mashhadi (2013) whom tracked Chaos in the procedure.

GRN, DT and RBF shares the poorest results and generally speaking could not tracked down the real trend of the procedure.

Sincerely

Babak

Refferences:

• Khatami Mashhadi, S. (2013). Nonlinear Chaotic and Trend Analyses of Water Level at Urmia Lake, Iran.

EWRA conference 2015

Hi guys

I want to inform you about my presentation on EWRA 2015 ( European Water Resource Association Conference). Topic of the conference is "Water Resources Management in a Changing World: Challenges and Opportunities Istanbul, 10-13 June 2015) and I will present my paper with title of: ANN, Decision Tree and Regression Methods for Forecasting Monthly Lagged Lake Water Level. It will be presented at June 12. 2015 afternoon 13:15 pm. you can get more information about the conference in link which I attached above to EWRA 2015 and Program of the conference.

Pdf link of my section.

sincerely yours

Babak Vaheddoost

Precipitation on LUB

Hi guys.

After a long time. I decided to share some stuff with you. Actually I am working on paper about the precipitation of the Lake Urmia Basin (LUB). The early investigations on maximum, minimum etc. properties of the basin shows a strong non-homogeneity. Once comparing with previous literature, other research makers is underlining the strong variation in climate across the LUB. Relying on this studies my own investigations is in complete agreement with the previous researchs. I will share the results as soon as the main paper is published on the journal.

What is more, for people whom live in  Urmia it is  recognizable to see the reducing pattern of precipitation. what is more, for those who travel across the border of the Turkey and Iran specially in the winter and autumn it is surprising that mountains which are  on the border of two country does not share the same hillside conditions. While Turkey side is full of snow and overflowing rivers the hillside which is associated inside the Iranian border does not have any snow cover at all. Considering this I decided to take a look at satellite imagery picture. Here is the result of a  the investigation from LANDSAT 8 which was obtained from USGS earth explorer site (http://earthexplorer.usgs.gov/).

These two images belongs to Feb 13. 2015 which indicates the role of  mountains on prevention of entrancement of  evaporation to the LUB. This subject is one of the pure subjects that is good for investigation but there is some limitations on investigations such phenomena (i.e. Political and International). What is more, in my new research I am studying the properties of rainfall in 53 meteorological stations which at least have 30 years of recorded data (There are stations with more than 40 year records) which the properties of them is exposed in Figure 1 bellow.

Figure 1. Box plot of the annual rainfall

I hope you enjoyed the new details which I shared with you after such a  long time. But I will try to write more posts.

Thankfully yours 

Babak Vaheddoost